Election Day is November 3rd
Midterm elections may draw less attention than presidential elections, but their consequences are just as significant. This November, every House seat is on the ballot, and the results will determine who controls the chamber for the final two years of President Trump’s term.
Affordability, health care, immigration, energy, and the war with Iran are driving voters’ decisions. Redistricting in several states has reshaped dozens of competitive districts, while the overall political environment has put more seats in play.
In recent months, polling has consistently favored Democrats, but polls can’t guarantee an outcome. They can help measure public opinion and voter enthusiasm, but they can’t tell us exactly who will show up on Election Day. With many competitive districts expected to be decided by narrow margins, turnout could determine control of the House.
History favors the party out of power
Midterm elections are often treated as a referendum on the sitting president, and history generally favors the party not currently holding the White House. Since 1934, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections. In the 2018 midterms, during President Trump’s first term, Republicans lost 41 seats, handing control of the House to Democrats.
House Republicans enter November 2026 with little cushion; a net loss of only three seats would be enough to end their majority. In its October 9 assessment, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently shifted several races toward Democrats and currently projects Democratic gains of nine to 19 seats, which would give them a majority of 224 to 234 seats (218 seats are needed for a majority in the House).
Near-record turnover is coming to the House
Regardless of which party wins, the House will look very different when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027. At least 83 House seats will have a different representative than they did when the 119th Congress began. This large turnover represents nearly 20 percent of the chamber and reflects retirements, bids for other offices, primary defeats, deaths, and resignations. Additional incumbents could lose in November, adding to the turnover.
The departures cut across party lines and include longtime members with deep institutional knowledge, appropriations experience, and bipartisan relationships. New members will have to quickly develop policy expertise and compete for committee seats, and they could bring new pressure for changes in leadership, House rules, and committee practices. For the ocean community, this turnover could reshape the bipartisan coalitions that support ocean, science, Great Lakes, and coastal priorities.
Notable ocean and coastal members not returning in 2027:
- New England: Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME-02) is not seeking reelection. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH-01) is running for the Senate. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA-06) lost his Senate primary. Rep. John Larson (D-CT-01) lost his House primary.
- Mid-Atlantic: Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-MD-05), Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ-12), Nydia Velázquez (D-NY-07), and Jerry Nadler (D-NY-12) are retiring.
- Southeast, Gulf, and Caribbean: Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA-01), House Oceans Caucus co-chair, lost his Senate primary. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC-01) lost the primary for governor. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL-19) and Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-VI) are running for governor of Florida and the U.S. Virgin Islands, respectively. Reps. Neal Dunn (R-FL-02), Vern Buchanan (R-FL-16), and Frederica Wilson (D-FL-24) are retiring. Rep. David Scott (D-GA-13) died in April 2026.
- Great Lakes: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL-09) is retiring. Reps. John James (R-MI-10) and Tom Tiffany (R-WI-07) are running for governor of Michigan and Wisconsin, respectively.
- West Coast and Northwest: Reps. Julia Brownley (D-CA-26), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-11), and Dan Newhouse (R-WA-04) are retiring. Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-WY), chair of the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheries, is running for the Senate.
Ocean, coastal and Great Lakes races to watch
With so many members leaving the House, these elections will determine which experienced legislators will return, which new voices emerge, and who will shape federal ocean policy. Competitive races with implications for the ocean and coastal community include:
- Florida: Rep. Kathy Castor (D-FL-14) is defending a redrawn Tampa-area district. Her Gulf Coast constituency faces hurricanes, harmful algal blooms, offshore energy decisions, and coastal resilience needs.
- Michigan: Several Great Lakes districts are in play. Great Lakes Task Force Republican co-chair Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI-04) faces a competitive challenge. Reps. Tom Barrett (R-MI-07) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-MI-08) are also defending closely divided districts.
- New York: Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-NY-03) and Laura Gillen (D-NY-04) are running in competitive Long Island districts, representing communities with significant interests in ports, water quality, fisheries, offshore wind, and coastal resilience.
- Ohio: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH-09), a senior appropriator, longtime Great Lakes advocate, and co-chair of the bipartisan House Great Lakes Task Force, faces a rematch in a redrawn district that is more favorable to Republicans.
- Virginia: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA-02) is facing former Rep. Elaine Luria (D) in a Hampton Roads district closely connected to the Chesapeake Bay, commercial ports, recreational fishing, and sea-level rise.
- Washington: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA-03) is defending a district that includes communities along the Columbia River and Washington’s southern coast. President Trump carried the district in 2024.
What’s at stake for ocean policy?
Control of the House will shape federal funding, oversight, and legislation affecting our oceans, coasts, Great Lakes, and science enterprise.
If Democrats flip the House, they will control committees, set the legislative agenda, and increase oversight of the Trump Administration, while likely working to advance Democratic priorities like climate action and environmental protection. If Republicans retain control, they will be better positioned to advance the current administration’s agenda, though narrow margins and internal divisions could continue to complicate efforts.
Either way, the Senate and President Trump’s veto power will determine what can become law. Divided government would make bipartisan negotiations even more critical, particularly for must-pass legislation like annual appropriations. We’ll explore the Senate landscape in our next election update.
For the ocean, coastal, Great Lakes, and science communities, the stakes go well beyond any single issue or agency. From federal investments and agency priorities to the policies governing our natural resources and coastal economies, the next Congress will shape the landscape for years to come. Significant turnover also means new relationships to build, new committee leaders to engage, and new opportunities to advance priorities. Regardless of the election outcome, bipartisan relationships will remain essential to advancing ocean and coastal priorities.
ESP Advisors has deep connections across both parties, both chambers of Congress, and the executive branch. We know how to navigate Washington and deliver results, regardless of who’s in power. Let’s talk about advancing your priorities in the 120th Congress.
