Election Day is November 3rd
Control of the Senate could come down to a handful of races, many in states along our coasts and Great Lakes. Following our look at the House, we turn to the Senate, where November’s results will shape federal funding, congressional leadership, and the direction of ocean, coastal, and environmental policy.
A narrow path to the majority
Republicans hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 45 plus two independents who caucus with them. With the Republican vice president able to break a tie, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the upper chamber. Of the 35 seats on the ballot this year, Republicans are defending 22 and Democrats are defending 13.
That gives Democrats more opportunities to pick up seats, but their path is difficult. They must defend open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, along with Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) seat in Georgia. Flipping Maine and North Carolina, two key targets, would still leave them needing two additional Republican-held seats without losing any of their own.
The battlefield has expanded to include several states President Trump carried in 2024. As of October 20, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates seven races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Six are Republican-held seats, giving Democrats additional opportunities, though winning in traditionally Republican states remains a challenge. Nearly every route to a four seat gain for Democrats runs through states that usually favor Republicans. Republicans’ path to victory depends on strong turnout, undecided voters breaking their way, and Republican nominees outperforming President Trump’s low approval ratings.
Turnover will reshape the Senate
Regardless of which party controls the Senate when the 120th Congress convenes, at least 16 Senate seats will have a different occupant. That turnover includes retirements, bids for other offices, primary defeats, or the end of an interim appointment. Four seats have already changed hands in the 119th Congress: Sens. JD Vance (R-OH), Marco Rubio (R-FL), and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) departed for roles in the Trump Administration, and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) died.
For the ocean, coastal, Great Lakes, and science communities, these departures mean losing experienced advocates and building relationships with their successors. They will also open seats on committees that shape federal funding, and legislation that impacts environmental and science policy.
Notable departures include:
- New England: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is retiring.
- Southeast and Gulf: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is retiring. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) is running for governor. Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and John Cornyn (R-TX) lost their primaries.
- Great Lakes: Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI), co-chair of the bipartisan Senate Great Lakes Task Force, Tina Smith (D-MN), and Dick Durbin (D-IL) are retiring.
- Other departures: Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Steve Daines (R-MT), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) are retiring. Sen. Alan Armstrong (R-OK) is serving on an interim basis.
Ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes races to watch
Some of this year’s closest Senate races are unfolding in states that stretch from the Arctic and Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes and Gulf of Maine. Their outcomes could determine the balance of power while also bringing significant leadership changes, including at committees and subcommittees that shape fisheries, maritime, and appropriations policy.
- Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) faces former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Alaska’s fisheries, coastal communities, Arctic position, and extensive federal waters make this one of the most consequential races for ocean policy. Sullivan currently serves as Chair of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Coast Guard, Maritime, and Fisheries.
- Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) faces Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA-10). The race is an important Democratic defense in a state whose coastal priorities include the Port of Savannah, salt marsh conservation, and flood protection.
- Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) faces former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson (D). Collins’ reputation for independence and ability to attract crossover voters have helped her survive difficult elections. The outcome of this race matters to a state with major interests in lobster, fisheries management, working waterfronts, coastal management, and offshore wind. As chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, she plays a central role in shaping federal spending, and her defeat would create a major leadership opening.
- Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) are competing to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D). The transition creates an opening for a new voice on Great Lakes priorities.
- New Hampshire: Rep. Chris Pappas (D) faces former Sen. John Sununu (R) for the seat held by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). The state’s large independent electorate and tradition of ticket-splitting have made statewide elections competitive. New Hampshire’s Seacoast and Gulf of Maine interests also make the outcome relevant to ocean policy.
- North Carolina: Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R) for the seat held by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R). This is a key Democratic pickup opportunity in a state facing significant hurricane, flooding, and coastal resilience challenges.
- Ohio: Sen. Jon Husted (R) faces former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Ohio’s Lake Erie shoreline makes the race relevant to Great Lakes restoration, harmful algal blooms, water quality, and maritime commerce.
- South Carolina: Appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R) faces pediatrician Annie Andrews (D) in the special election following Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R) death. South Carolina’s ports, fisheries, coastal development, and resilience needs give the outcome direct relevance to the ocean community.
- Texas: Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) faces state Rep. James Talarico (D) following Sen. John Cornyn’s (R) primary defeat. The race remains close despite record-breaking fundraising and extraordinary Republican outside spending. Texas’ Gulf ports, offshore energy, tourism, and fishing industries are central to the national maritime economy.
- Wyoming: Rep. Harriet Hageman (R) faces former state Rep. James Byrd (D) for the open seat created by Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ (R) retirement. Hageman’s current role as chair of the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheries makes this transition relevant to the ocean community.
Why Senate control matters
The House and Senate both shape funding, oversight, and legal authority for federal agencies and programs, but unlike the House, much of the Senate’s work depends on bipartisanship and unanimous consent, giving individual senators considerable power. Neither party is expected to reach the 60-seat majority needed to overcome a filibuster, so controlling the Senate would not necessarily provide broad legislative control. Most major legislation would still require bipartisan support, and the House makeup plus President Trump’s veto power would also impact what ultimately becomes law.
Another major difference between the chambers is that only the Senate holds authority to confirm executive and judicial branch nominees. If Republicans retain control, President Trump would have a clearer path to confirming his nominees, while Republican chairs would continue setting committee agendas that more closely align with the administration. Even so, Republican control may not guarantee unified support. Several Republican senators have recently distanced themselves from the president on certain policies, and a narrow majority would potentially give individual members considerable leverage over controversial nominees and priorities.
If Democrats take control, the Senate would become the most significant congressional check on the president’s agenda. Democrats could slow or block nominees, launch investigations and oversight hearings, and challenge the administration’s legislative and funding priorities. If a Supreme Court vacancy arises, a Democratic majority could also prevent President Trump from filling the seat and limiting his ability to further shape the Court.
Under either outcome, a closely divided chamber would give individual senators outsized influence over what advances, what changes, and what stalls. Significant turnover will bring new committee leaders, regional interests, and policy priorities. It will also create new relationships to build and opportunities to advance ocean, coastal, and science enterprise priorities. Regardless of which party controls Congress, bipartisan engagement will remain essential.
ESP Advisors has deep connections across both parties, both chambers of Congress, and the executive branch. We know how to navigate Washington and deliver results, regardless of who’s in power. Let’s talk about advancing your priorities in the 120th Congress.
